Season 2: #7 Scott Braaten: Mt. Mansfield Weather Guru and Creator of Braatencast

This week we welcomed Scott Braaten into the Octagon studio as we are building stoke for the upcoming winter. Scott is one of the leading weather forecasters for Mt Mansfield and runs the popular Braatencast social media weather prediction page. Scott started his weather forecasting while a student at the University of Vermont and the popularity of his in depth reports spread like wildfire. Skiers and outdoor enthusiasts have come to rely on his knowledge and weather passion as they plan their next adventure. 

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This episode of the Octagon Podcast is brought to you in part by Archery Close and Union Bank. Hey, this is Chris and Taste from Archery Clothes, your go-to boutique. For men's and women's fashion, we carry a curated selection of clothing, footwear, and gifts from unique and emerging brands. We're proud to sponsor the Octagon and even prouder to be local business owners here in Stowe. We love how the Octagon captures the history and characters of this incredible town. After coming off the slopes or the trails, stop by archery close. Located at 1650 Mountain Road in Stowe. Open seven days a week, or always open online@archeryclose.com. Since 1891, union Bank has made banking a little bit easier and more convenient for you by investing in the success of its local community. Your community headquartered in Mooresville Union Bank has 18 branches and three loan centers throughout Northern Vermont and New Hampshire. Union Bank is a proud supporter of the Octagon Podcast, as well as many fantastic community oriented endeavors such as the STO Trails Partnership, the Vermont Ski and Snowboard Museum, and the STO Land Trust to name a few of the over 200 nonprofits they work with. To learn more, go to ub local.com. Welcome listeners to the Octagon Podcast, where we explore the stories, people, and places that make Stover Vermont so legendary. I'm your host, Ted Thorndyke, joined by my co-host Mike Carey. We're excited to introduce our guest today, Scott Brayton. Scott is one of the leading weather forecasters for Mount Mansfield and runs the popular Brayton cast social media weather prediction page. Scott is STOs very own weather guru and is a passionate local, but also honest about predicting storms. He's the unofficial weather authority for the Northern Green Mountains. Welcome, Scott. Thanks guys. Yeah, welcome. Scott. You built you there? Yeah. Great to be on. Awesome. it's great to have you, especially with winter coming up. I know Mike and I seasons are changing. We were talking about just, where's the ski gear? Getting everything ready. When's the first snow coming, which we'll get into. I know. Have we had any snow on Mansfield yet? No, it's got nothing below freezing a couple times. So rhyme ice type stuff? Yeah, just some rhyme ice on the top. Okay. Yeah. You saw a video, didn't you, Mike? I thought I saw a video, but you never can believe it killing you. See, somebody was like skiing on ice or Adirondacks maybe. Did they get some white face? Might have had something white face. Yeah. That's probably what it was. Yeah. Anyways, it's great to have you on and we'll just jump right in. For those who don't know you, what's the story behind Brayton Cast? How did it all begin and when did you first become interested in weather? So I, I've been interested in weather, particularly snow, since a very young age, and it was all related to skiing. I, just was fascinated with snow snowstorms as a kid. the snow days and, and where was, where did you grow up? Albany, New York. Okay, cool. So we did, we had our fair share of snow. Nothing like up here, but Yeah. Yeah. and then it, my love for skiing as a kid, it was a. good synergy. Yep. Snowfall and I went to the University of Vermont. really that's where I really fell in love with the Northern Green Mountains. And the weather up here particularly. Yep. I think anybody that knows from Burlington, there's. It's just a different climate. It's unbelievable. Yeah. Yeah. So coming up and not really having much knowledge of the weather up here, going from Burlington to Stowe And seeing all, the, you'd be sunny in Burlington. There's a foot of snow on Mount Mansfield. And that really, that got me going. Yeah. so I I studied, I studied economics. Had nothing to do with weather. But was, self-taught, I had a, uncle who was a professor of atmospheric sciences out in University of Kansas. Interesting. He would send me tornadoes, yes. But he would send me weather textbooks. This is funny, and as a kid, you're like, ah, this, As a gift, okay, I got a textbook, it's whatever, not the most exciting gift anyway, as you get older. I was like, Hey. And I started digging into'em. Cool. Just in free time. and, and learned quite a bit about it. Awesome. Very cool. So self-taught? Yes. Self-taught. Yes. I have no schooling in meteorology. but just I think if you're on the mountain all the time and and you love the weather, paid attention to it. yeah. Yeah. it helps to know the weather at this mountain to be able to pick and choose when you can plan your schedule accordingly, right? Yeah. And that's why I did it at UVM. Would, I'd have Tuesdays and Thursdays off, so the. The writing of the forecast, the whole thing. That story starts with UVM had this listserv, the Ski Vermont Listserv, which is like an email early. Internet early, yeah. This is two around 2000. Yeah. So we would go skiing, take pictures,'cause I love photography too. Yeah. and then we post'em to this listserv and it was like other UVM students. And but it turned out that a lot of the northern Vermont ski community. Lurked on this, including ski area, management, people, marketing. and so then I started writing forecasts Oh, okay. For this. Cool. So I started probably 20 years ago, just r. Throwing my thoughts out there on this thing, and it slowly grew. so would you say that was when it started? Yes. Yeah. Probably like 2003 incubator, 2004, somewhere in there. Very early internet. Facebook was still just for college, right? There was no Instagram. Yeah. MySpace. Yes. and I just, I'd throw out my weather thoughts and I got to the point where people would know that since we had Tuesdays and Thursdays off to go skiing, my buddy Dave and I, that those afternoons and evenings, they would get. Photos from Stowe, like a kind of a snow report update from just a college kid going skiing. But then also at the bottom I'd always add weather thoughts. And it turned out that's what people wanted to read, right? And over time it became a thing. So and if you missed a Tuesday or a Thursday, you'd hear about it. People would be like, oh, I was waiting for it and then never came in my inbox. So that was the first start, and that led to my work at Still Mountain Resort, actually. I was riding the four runner quad one day with a gentleman. we were talking snow reporting. hit the Ow Snow Report. I wasn't affiliated with the mountain and I introduced myself. He introduced himself, Mike Colburn, the VP of Yeah. Marketing communications and invited me into his office. at a future date we chatted and that's how I, that just that one chairlift ride and he had been reading these forecasts Oh, wow. On this UVM listserv. Oh wow. Very cool. So just a chance encounter, but that's what. Parlayed into Stowe. And so after that conversation, you started doing the snow reports at Stowe? Yes. And a future went in probably one or two winters. I was a, I did a marketing internship with STO Mountain Resort. Got it. Back then. And then. I went into snow reporting, social media and photography for the resort. Got it. That's cool. so I assume weather forecasting in 2003 was a lot harder than it is now, because now that all so take us through your process. that must have been hard back then, right?'cause I don't know what tools you even could use. Yeah, they had, the weather models were still out there. they weren't, they weren't as good, but you could find'em. The graphics were pretty. Fridays terrible, but I always would just look for, Basically recognizing certain setups. Yeah, and I think UPS Slope snow, which is what we're all, we all know. Ted's looking at me still doesn't understand that. That sounds a good cue. Mike. Mike talks about UPS slope a lot and gives these hair brainin explanations. But maybe for our listeners, what is up slope? I mean it's autographic lift. it's something the Green Mountains do. Unlike anything else in the Northeast. Oh, okay. Really? Is that, the topography of the green mountain spine? It's like a north. South or south? North facing, spine. so you have the west side, the east side, but there's no, like the Adirondacks and the white mountains are more of a clump. I don't know if that's, I'm trying to think of how to phrase it correctly. Hodgepodge of mass versus a divine. It's like when you're on Mansfield and you look north, you see all the way to J and it's just a, it's just a ribbon spine. Yes. It's literally a spine. They're vert Lake Champlain vert. Yeah. And you got the valley on either side. the up slope is the air is obviously gonna come into this wall of mountains. It needs to lift to rise over'em, so the air is gonna cool, condense, and form precipitation. Now, this will happen in the Adirondacks or the White Mountains, and it happens all over, anywhere there's mountains or graphic lift. What makes Vermont. And the Green Mountains, especially central and northern, so good, is that it's, the ski areas are situated right on this spine, and you also have a big wide open valley, the Champlain Valley, and then southern Quebec is really flat as well. So you know when you're standing on Mansfield and you look northwest and it's just. Wide open. Yeah. and so all the air coming from the Northwest needs to lift up and over this barrier. there's really no, not many gaps around. It's just, yeah. Know where to go. it's think of a, in a river, we got the west branch out here and kids in the summer build the little rock, barriers across the river and stuff. And so the water needs to go up and over that. And that's basically what the Green Mountains form that, that barrier. Yeah. And it's, And it honestly doesn't matter which really way the wind is coming. If it's coming east, southeast, it's gotta go up and over it. we just don't usually get. That type of a flow that's cold and moist. It's right, it's usually north, Northwest, obviously northwest. but it just, it needs to lift up and over and it cools and condenses and precipitates right there. Yeah. It does seem like, because I do understand up slopes in a head that if it's warm and then we go to a cold pattern. Yeah. Northwest wind, like warm to cold. Northwest wind, like temperature dropping hammer time. Yes. It's hammer time, right? Yes. So this is if, I don't know how that, it must factor into it. It does. because I noticed that, yeah. so the National Weather Service, they started, it was around that time, around 2000, late 1990s. They had a bunch of studies come out regarding, UPS Slope snow in the Northeast. and this is where I read and you look at the different, they'd come up with certain factors that you need to be, that need to be present and of one of it is cold air eviction. The air's getting colder. It's a northwest flow. Yep. There has to be a certain amount of, relative humidity surface moisture. And when they combine You're gonna, it's gonna snow. Yeah. and I think another thing with this is so the weather, we think of it in terms of the atmosphere is fluid, so everything, think of how water would move over. Rocks and the mountains are the rocks type of thing. Yeah. We think of it as a lot of storms. You have the tide come in and then the tide goes out. A lot of the up slope is the tide going out. Yeah. is just how I visualize it in a weird way, I don't know if I'm explaining it but you have a southeast, a lot of storms. we have the southeast flow and we may miss some of those. Yes. And, but it brings in, usually it'll bring in moisture. Yeah. Moisture from the Atlantic. Yeah. and even if it doesn't really snow and you don't. Sometimes you, it's obviously you can't tell, but the moisture is just increasing just enough. But then as soon as the wind comes around northwest boom. Exactly. You get the cold air comes in, there's still moisture. It's gotta go up over the mountain. Exactly. And we get crushed. And that's when you wake up and people are disappointed. Oh, we only got two inches. I'm like, wait, hold on, we're just getting going here. The storm's gone. Yes. But not for us. that's the fun part. That's the magic. Everybody gets so, the first half of storms are pure, can be pure panic up here. you're at the mountain every, and a lot of panic. Everybody's been watching the news, watching the Weather channel. Anybody on social media True. That they wanna see. Yeah. And that the, you're like, oh, Friday it's supposed to dump. What happens on Friday is we get three to four inches and everybody's looking for 12 to 18 or something and it's just this nervous energy. And then you wait and then Friday night, all of a sudden you come in the next morning, that's when it came. It's 12 to 14. Yeah. When nobody else got anything, Exactly. would you say that, when you talk about up slope and the Northern Greens, Mount Mansfield specific, is a zone that. Can experience the greatest amount. Yes. JP would probably say they do, but yes and no. I will be the science to me is that snowfall in the Northern Greens does increase as you head north. Okay. I do, I You do believe that. I do believe that, yeah. Jay gets more than Mansfield with that pattern. Yeah. So with UPS slope, I do believe, because There's a few things that you have closer proximity to Southern Quebec where it's flatter. So there's less, the air is not being disturbed at all, right? It's just coming straight. It's just Oh yeah. North pole, To jb Yeah. to j. it's true. Whereas depending on the flow, if it's more northwest, so if j if the flow is due north, straight outta the north, Jay can still do pretty well because they're the first barrier. At, to the north. Mansfield's more of a northwest. As the flow turns a little bit more to the west, we can start to get the Adirondacks involved a little bit and they, if it's, do West, they can block a little bit For us. but no, I think. Okay. In general, in Vermont, just in, at a large scale, snowfall increases as you head north. Yeah. So sugar Bush a little less. Yes. Snow more JP Peak more. Yes. Because Southern Greens don't really tap into this. No. they can, they, there can be one offs and stuff like that, but not to the scale that, that it is up north. So I think we touched on it and then we got sidetracked with this awesome up slope discussion. But so take us through, when do you get excited about a storm, and then what's your process for modeling and forecasting it? Because you can't trust. Oh, I don't, five, six days in advance.'cause those things change. You can get excited, you can't trust it. You get excited. Exactly. I'm gonna start texting with Scott because I do, I do this with Xander. We have a bet on every storm about how much snow we're gonna get. And I look at the models too. So Xander, I finally have somebody I can bounce ideas off of. Yeah, he's a good one to talk to too. Yeah. but, all So take us through your process. Sorry. Yeah, so I would say that you're always, I'm always watching. Yeah. you just what's going on. I think every skier is, that's a, that's the beauty of the internet these days is that everybody's got access to weather models. you can go to tropical tidbits or wherever you're gonna get your stuff from, and, And just watch. but it's usually about five days out you can start to, you start seeing if there's something worth paying attention to. but yeah, you gotta get to within, under three days, two days even. but I think it's just watching. The pattern, but there's there's just a feel to each winter has a different feel. Yeah. And if you pay attention to it all the time, you get this idea that okay, this is going to come through certain winters where you're just like, you never feel comfortable that it's ever gonna snow. Yeah. we had what. 2015 and 16. I don't think it, it, the mountain recorded 150 inches. Oh wow. Which is never anything close to that lift. Everything. Exactly. Yeah. And you just, some winters just have that feel. Yeah. Other winters, it, as soon as anything is within a hundred miles, you know you're gonna get crushed or something. It's just last year. Last year, January, February, Yeah. Everything. Yeah. Nothing really missed. Spectacular. And if the models are showing some snow, it just, everything seems to overperform. And yeah. And those are the good winters. But, I think it's just watching, seeing how things evolve as the days get closer. Yeah. is it trending worse? Is it trending better? and just from, you can see large scale, I'm always looking for certain things that, like upper levels, what looks good, what doesn't, But, so sources, you would say tropical tidbits. I know that. that's one I weather bell pivotal, weather pivotal. you can use'em all Cool weather.com, look at soundings and things like that. yeah. so you're taking pieces from everyone. Yes. And then at the base of that as just your knowledge, experience, how that winter has been performing. That's how it all comes together, set up the Mount Man Mansfield. It's yeah. And I think a big part of this is. So for all my time doing the snow report. Which we still do, a couple days, a couple mornings a week. but prior to that I spent probably 10 to 15 years, just five days a week snow. it was a full-time gig back In, the a HE days. and I would be at the mountain for eight hours a day just watching the weather. Skiing and taking photos. wow. And all I paid attention to was weather. Yeah. And yeah, you got pretty good. yeah. So just every day you're just paying attention to what on the screen. Yeah. Yeah. so when you're looking at, computer models and soundings and wind and all, and seeing what that looks like and then going outside and experiencing it on the mountain all the time, I'm thinking when I look at, pulling on that. Data bank. When you look at something on the screen and be like, I know what, I've seen this before. I have a feeling of what this is gonna look like. it could be something as in mid storm, is it gonna go misty, freezing mist? Is it gonna be like, and everybody's gonna start losing their mind because there's ice and what's happening and then, but you have that, you're like, just hang tight. Just hang tight. It's gonna come, the tide's gonna come out and it's, it is gonna need to go back out and it's gonna snow. Yeah, so you know, all that experience and yeah, I think there's no replacing being up at the mountain. you can look at all the models you want, but the amount of time you've spent up there, you must know every little corner of that mountain. And just, that must have been so helpful. Still is. Yes. That's what I, to step out the door. I think that's what it was. It was just spending Yeah. That much time, 150 days a year on the hill. literally just monitoring weather. Yeah. Just it was a dream job for what? I was in my twenties, didn't pay anything, but just, if you wanted to do something just. Every day measuring snow, looking at weather models, forecasting and stuff like that. It was, it's a wealth of knowledge to draw on. Totally. And you talked about being at UVM and sharing. the weather reports and that, was very popular. When did you decide to, start Brighton Cast and when were you oh hey, this is something I want to, share with others? I check it frequently myself. Yeah. So it, it's funny. I didn't, I'll give Mike Heidelman credit. Okay. I dunno if Mike. Photographer. Photographer or ow area. Yeah. Seen him around for many years. He was the one that actually created the bra and cast page.'cause I would just make, and I, I didn't really have a forum to, I think it was a nudge, nudge Hey, we want, people want this here you go. Here's something to, and it was, it started off as a joke, like bra and cast on,'cause I would put a lot of my forecast into the snow report. Yeah. they're under the guise of Snow Mountain Resort. Yeah. But it was me writing'em. And so a lot of the locals knew that anyway. But bra and cast, he started it. I started putting forecasts out there. on Facebook. It got very popular. I wish I could do it more and all the time. Yeah, Of course. it's, now switched more to Instagram. It's fa, Facebook's a little clunky at times. And I haven't found quite the best medium for it.'cause also on Instagram, they limit the length I can be wordy and, but people seem to love that with weather. Yeah, definitely. They like the kind of in depth Yeah. Like the thought process and even, like the snow growth. Is it gonna be fluffy? Is it gonna be wet? What's the ratio, what's the ratios gonna be? What's the water equivalent? But, so I still haven't found the perfect. Instagram is pretty good about a podcast. Yeah, no, I know. Yeah. Weather podcast. Weather podcast. No, I do Instagram though. I think that's the easiest, for me. Yeah. but yeah, that was like, Mike Heidelman, just so how many years has that been running? maybe 10 years. Not that long.'cause I was doing the, the UVM thing 20 years ago, snow reporting. Brayton cast as its own entity on Facebook probably. Yeah, probably at 10, 12 years ago. Yeah. Somewhere in there. I wonder if there is, a weather blog, right?'cause there's other popular bloggers. You create a website, know you have the Mad River blog blogger. You have the JP has, Tim Kelly. Tim Kelly, who's super knowledgeable. Yep. And I read those. Ow. Skier, stow Skier. Yep. Tim Kelly's up there all the time. Yeah, exactly. There's probably, there is an opportunity for that in depth level. Yeah. For, for sure. But it's time consuming, right? Yeah. This is the thing with my wife says to me, she's you spend more time looking at the weather models and actually just going outside sometimes. Yeah. I put it, I like to add my thoughts to the ow snow report. every day at, usually in the afternoon, there's an afternoon update on the snow report. Yeah. I write those every day. Okay. Seven days a week. All season long. so if there's weather information, I like to It's a little more in depth too. but you probably can't over promise on that, right? You can't sayt Oh, I'm thinking six to 12. You can't do thatt and I don't write it, I don't write it in a way of under me, under stop rating. But those are, Yeah, Andre and Matt love that. Got it. you can, when you read it, you're I know who wrote that. Yeah. So when do you determine, when you want to predict a storm or talk about a, is there a certain size or, yes and no. It's a, I, this is where I struggle because the, everybody expects it with the big ticket items. And I'll be quite honest, that's not. That's not what got me excited about the weather in the Northern Greens. I like the little sleeper five. Yes. And that type of stuff. those are hard to keep up with sometimes, but, but everybody expects the big storm posts because, everybody on social media is posting about'em. They're sharing different sources. They want to know, they want that affirmation that it's gonna be 10 to 18, the guarantee. Yeah. And then, they just, they need to see it. And sometimes that stuff. The other thing is the hype on social media can get outta control. Yeah. And yeah. Yeah. Those are times when I like to reset it and Sometimes you'd be like, I think we're only gonna get eight to 12. And you got everybody sharing things of 20 to 30. The wind isn't favorable. Yes. The wind is something, it's too warm. Yes. Like upper levels are getting warm. The snowflakes are gonna be rhymed and the ratios are gonna be low, Sure we're gonna get an inch of water is snow. And somebody's out there being sometimes that means 30 to one and it's gonna be 30 inches of snow. And you're no, this time it's probably gonna be eight to one and we're gonna get 10 inches of dense snow. Which is still great, still fun, but it's not the. The hype train that's already left the station. Yeah, I hear you. those storms are like, there's a rain snow line, but it's like warm at the upper levels, the atmosphere. Those are the worst.'cause everyone's everyone just assumes, oh, it's Mount Mansfield, so it's gonna snow up there. And you're no, it's warmer. It's at the top. yeah, and people. Yeah. You see the, they don't understand that Ted, me and Scott get this. Yeah. 10,000, 10,000 feet, it's raining. Exactly. So yeah. That doesn't help in all situations. No. Sometimes it helps, but no, not in that case. but yeah, to answer your question, Ted, I think it's when I decide to post is often a confidence level. Yeah. Of what? Because it's. I'm not in the, I just don't have the time to update every six hours, every 12. And it also might be a time, a certain time, but like they. To write those. It does take some time. Yeah. Yeah. we all appreciate it, Yeah. It's it's a big service to the community, but I think you're right. Like those two or three days in a row where we get five, six inches and it stacks up to be 18 over three days, that's all the time. And it's great every day. Yeah. that's way better than one storm that everyone in the world's driving to the mountain, it's on a wind hold. Yep. and it's I, it's a disaster, right? Because it's under it. It's just, it's the hype gets so the Oh, yeah. The Internet's done many great things for the world. Yeah. Sometimes it's just a runaway train that, you know, yeah. All my friends from Boston start calling me. Should I come up? Should I come up? I'm I don't know. No, there are though. There's those just multiple days, or sometimes I'll get up there super early. I'm oh yeah, we're getting pounded, and it didn't snow that much and I'm literally driving home. Yes. Start hammering. Yeah. and then it's just there all day. And there's a lot of the, a lot of the big storms we always, sto, the. The climate climatology up here just isn't. We do get hammered with nor'easters from time to time, but it's been a while. Yeah. There was agreed, there was a stretch in like the early two thousands to, through Valentine's Day, 2007, that monster storm. where a lot of them, a lot of the nor'easters were hit. I, but it feels like it's been true. Every time you hear of a nor'easter, you're oh, we're not, we're gonna get like a. Four to eight inches with 70 mile an hour winds or something, and you're like, okay, that's, I'm all set with that. this episode is sponsored by Edelweiss Mountain Deli located on the mountain Road. I know for me it is the perfect stopping point after day on the hill to grab my favorite Waitsfield sandwich and a cup of coffee, and for me grabbing my favorite Sweet Sensation bar. Whether you're looking for fresh Vermont pastries, farm to table prepared meals or local Vermont products to add your barbecue, make sure Edelweiss Mountain Deli is your next stop. When it comes to luxury real estate in Stowe Trust, Meg Kaufman of Land Vests, Christie's International Real Estate. Meg Kaufman knows the market inside and out. She's been a part of the Stowe community for over 20 years. Whether you're buying or selling, Meg Kaufman offers a concierge level of service. Taylor, just for you. Backed by the power of land vests and Christie's International. She brings proven success and local insight to every transaction, luxury real estate, local expertise. Meg Kaufman and Land Vests are the team you want on your side. so do you think that's a climate trend that we're getting because we're getting similar amounts of snow, but maybe in a different way? Maybe now it's more that up slope? I don't know. What do you think? Yeah, I think there's a, there has been a trend for nor'easters to be further east. More progressive in the flow, which pushes'em more. They're more east. there are, I've seen theories out there that, with global warming or warming, especially of northern latitudes, there's less of a thermal gradient in the mid latitudes where we are, which, the jet stream just isn't amplifying as much as it. It could, it keeps everything a little more progressive. Yeah. it's a fast flow. Who knows? But it does seem like we're in a rut where we haven't had one of those, like a big monster star. We get a Nor East, you hear of a nor East Star on the news and. Mount Snow has gotten three feet. wild Cat's got three feet right. And we've got a wind whipped six maybe, and it's f And then you're up here and people from Boston come up and they're like, there's more snow in my front yard than there's what happened? Different weather pattern. So this, the Mansfield Snow Stake. Let's talk about that for a second. You must love Yes, the Mansfield Snow Stake big fan. So yes, we, Andre, Matt and I are involved too with that one so that, if when you go up there, Noah's got the, they used to have. WCAX used to have an engineer stationed at the summit all the time. Oh, wow. So 24 hours a day. Wow. And that was the person that would read the snow stake and report into the National Weather Service, the snow stake that's up on the toll road, just octagon on the left. the classic. Yeah. When someone says Mansfield Snow Stake, that's the official, the one that's the one like this is, we have the high road stake and the lookout snow cam and stuff, but the Mansfield stake is the fabled. Wow. Big. Yep. Piece of wood fable indeed. Red up there. that's awesome. So WCAX used to have a engineer that was 24 hours a day up there probably, maybe a decade ago. Might've even been less than that. They stopped doing that. and so the National Weather Service, obviously, it was a big deal that they wouldn't get these reports in, so they were lucky enough to get a grant for the camera that you see up there. So that whole, they put that, all of a sudden that camera setup showed up and that's sweet. they can get that thing. Goes down from time to time, obviously, as one would imagine, and probably the harshest climate for electronics in the world. I can't think, and so when that goes down, we'll make it a point that myself, Andre, or Matt will go up and give a, take a photo and send it to National Weather Service. Yeah. and I think it's a cool thing'cause I've also, people who have seen it on the Bray and cast Instagram, I'll put out like sometimes we need, we need a photo. and so even the skinning local community whether it's Mike Hayes or somebody that's up there, we'll take a photo. Oh, cool. And send it in. So I think it's a cool community aspect too that I get, that we get a lot of, I think that's a huge part of the ski culture on Mount Mansfield iconic. Yes. Yeah. How long has that been there? it's 1954. 1954. That's 70 years of data. Yes. And it's very simple data. That's a, that's the phenomenal part about it. It's literally just a, but you look at it, have you ever looked at it, like the graph, it tells you how the winter went, right? It's it's like this super simple, once a day. A number. That's amazing. That's just a two by four strapped to a tree. And this is like the most fable piece of information in Vermont Ski history. Yeah. Which is fable. and there's a beauty in that, just with all the technology and all that, it just, it's right here. No, between hiking and biking and skiing. Every single time I pass and I'm like, ah, that thing is so cool. It is. It is. Is so cool. And it tells the truth. This is the thing.'cause I've had people say to me, oh, last winter was. Bad. And I'm like, hang on. No, it wasn't, there's the data. Maybe the days you weren't there, it didn't snow, but let's look at Yeah. What it was. And they're like, oh, it used to snow more in 1980. I go, let's go look at 1980. Actually, it didn't snow that year. So with it's data, and people have a hard time with data, but I don. Yeah. Like how long? if it's a. you're like, oh, it went two or three months above 60 inches of depth. You're like, that's good. Good winter. Yeah. Every everything's in fair game. you can go wherever you want. And I think that can be a funny conversation for anybody when they say it was a good winter or it was a bad winter. it's all perspective. And maybe sometimes people say it and it's. you were only up there 10 days. Yeah. a lot of times I find with the winter in Vermont, if you log a good amount of days, some winters are better than others, you're gonna get some good days. It's a tough question. what makes a good winter? perspective. I have a lot of people ask me that. from a weather standpoint, I think, obviously snowfall to me, I just, total snowfall. I just like powder days like everybody else. Yeah. And I think that the more, the better. Yes. Something simple as if it. Snows more. It's probably better. Yeah. there are some winters where it doesn't snow as much, but the snow depth is great because we don't have the thaws. Yeah. Which the stake will show that, which every winter usually has a characteristic, but generally to me, if we're measuring 300 inches at the high roads, no stake for the resort or you. It's gotta be good. Yeah, it's hard. Gotta be good. It's hard. It's hard to do wrong by that. Yeah. And I think too, sometimes people get so caught up and they want the massive storms, but you get four to six inches. Yeah. especially light fours a week. it's phenomenal because it stacks, it just makes the conditions better too. And the groomers are good for days after. Yeah. No, we, I think there was a 2016 and 17. Andre and I measured 375 inches. Wow. At the high road stake, but there weren't many big storms. Yeah. It was one of the crazier like snow. Those are, these are the best winters, three inches a day for the month of February, so it was like a hundred inches in the month, but it just, yeah, last winter, just it kept snowing too. Yeah. And you don't get the big hyped up storms where like everybody needs to go and you're just if there's three inches every day, some days you can go, some days you can't, So in all of your years, skiing ow forecasting, what is one storm that sticks out to you? I know there's been a lot. Yeah. one that, that just, and it could be anything. It could be a variety of factors that really just speaks to you. my favorite Vermont snow storm is the Valentine's Day of 2007. I was at UVM then, but like that was a, what was the total? A, there was. That wasn't snow reporting. I think the mountain reported four or five feet. Wow. Something like that. Burlington had 26 inches or whatever. but I just, I remember that was just the landscape. It was one of those ones where everything changed and you went out on the mountain and like entire clumps of trees are gone above the tree. like up in the Alpine you're just like, just loaded so much snow into it. Yeah. but one that really sticks out that I was thinking about before this was, The Leap Day snowstorm in 2020. no one will probably really remember this, except for Andre. Andre, remember this, I believe it. the high road recorded like 40 inches over like 48 to 72. 72, 48 hours, something like that. And I was looking back at it and it was one of those unassuming. The first part was like a foot of wet snow. It was raining in town. It was like sloppy in the base area, but above crossover was just getting crushed. And so nobody, I remember there was nobody there the first time, the first day of the storm because it was like miserable, And you know those days you're driving around, it's raining in town and you're I don't know, this isn't super exciting. But the mountain just got crushed with heavy wet snow. About a foot just plastered everything. I think the quad was on hold. It was the mountain triple at the time. Yeah. And everybody's just riding the triple and making laps over to tra, just traversing over tore amigos. Yeah. And you'd ski a foot of snow. Then the next night it was the usual where it was warm and wet, got cold and then, cold. The tide came in, it was warm and wet, and then the tide went back out and it just, and it was, it coupled with some lake effect. Off of Ontario and it just hammered. And it was really only Mansfield'cause it was like a narrow band of Lake effect off of all the way from Lake Ontario. And it snowed another like. Two feet of just pure fluff. Yeah. And I just remember that day it was probably some of the deepest snow I've ever skied. Yeah. On Mansfield. And the whole reason that you remember those days is because one, nobody was there because nobody expected it. Yeah. it's not the right yourself. It's like a, it just a weird combination of a wet, heavy snow followed by a rogue lake effect band and some other stuff. but yeah, I love those storms that, yeah. No, no winter storm warnings. No. no flashing signs. You got that nice base. Yes. When it goes heavy, wet the first heavy wet and then fill it all in, and then it just then blower on top of it and it doesn't get any worse. Wow. I'm getting excited. I know. You gonna be in the midway parking lot tomorrow with your skin's on with the rhyme ice. Oh, just that got me all fired. So let's talk about what's this any thoughts on, I've seen some winter weather forecast, which I never trust. Old Farmer's Almanac and even Noah. Thank you for saying that. Yeah. I don't want, you can't predict, right? People always want the, what's it going? Nobody knows. Nobody knows. And is it a lot? I don't even know. Is it a lot? It's London. Yeah, it is a line, which I do I think. so it's wetter. I think there's been some, some steak. Some studies done with the stake data. Okay. That do show that La Nina winters end up having higher snow depths. Okay. At the stake, which more precept, I think probably the correlation's. Probably a little, yeah. Tenuous, right? we'll take it. We'll run with it. Yeah. We'll take it. We'll take anything we can get. So if someone says, LA Nina, snow years tend to run with a little higher snow depth to the stake. We'll take that. We'll take it. Here's my theory. I have a theory. Okay. Warm Octobers mean cold. Novembers. Because we've had cold Octobers. You're getting excited and all of a sudden it's a warm November. do you have data? I have no, real data. Just, okay. just my own subjective data that yeah, I want it to be warm on Halloween.'cause then it's gonna be cold on Thanksgiving. Here's my theory. So I'm into it. I do agree. I don't wreck any. any vibes? sometimes I think there is some data that shows that warm October, so there's a big correlation with November oftentimes. But if October's warm and November's warm, generally yes. the two, I could see that if you have those two months and they are running and they run warm. Correlated to warmer than normal. Warmer, because it's winters in general. The atmosphere is cooling down. That's where it's fast enough. Yeah. Like you're not growing the snow pack up north that you need to create those cold air masses. Yeah. You're not, that makes sense. like you're not freezing the ground up. You're not like, it's just everything's behind a little bit. Yeah. So we just gotta hope for cold November. Yeah. We don't wanna run warm October. Yeah. No, that would be bad. That was in November. Yeah. but I do agree with your, with the premise that weather patterns often we find, run somewhere in the four to six week range. just in, it's very rough, but sometimes four to eight weeks. But it's, if you're in, if you're in like a persistent ridge with warm air and high pressure and You're, you can get stuck in that for 4, 6, 8 weeks. But usually doesn't last longer than that. So that's where you often, you get those winters where the first half is really bad. Yeah. Sometimes the back half can be great because it's just, it's hard to sustain that. Or you have, you've seen that happen a lot or you have a great first half and then come February. It's just gone and nothing happens. A tree, you have to travel, you have to start looking because then it's usually snowing out west because it's flipped. It's flipped. Yeah. A hundred percent. Yeah. I've seen a lot of winters like March and April have just been phenomenal. And a lot of people, they're just like, ah, it's over. Yeah. Back in my gear way. It's just, I think those are the best of the late snows. Yeah. Yeah. I guess historically, over all your years, what is on average the snowiest month? At Stowe. That's a tough one. Yeah. Everybody wants to say March and I don't think it is. Yeah, I, my, my gut is saying January or February. Yeah, I would say February, I mean is, yeah, I was gonna say, yeah, January, February, whatever. One is not the coldest. oftentimes it gets so cold, January cold, like it suppressed and it's snowing in New Jersey and we, it's just cold and dry. but I think marches are often our biggest, one-off storms. Yeah. And I think that's where that, that comes, that kind of comes from this, everybody's oh, March is the snowiest month. That's a good point, Scott. That I never really thought about. Yeah. You'll get the big one. The big one, but then you'll have a week of sun. it's chill. Yeah. Whereas I, I think January and February, you're more likely to get into that. three inches a day. Like last winter. Yes. Yeah. Yeah. There's been a bunch of that was crazy. Yeah, that was crazy. That was just continuous. Yeah, I can remember. That's a good point. I can think of a few of those now where, and it is, you'll get, we will get a hundred inches in say, three weeks or something in February, but none of'em were over 12 inches at a time. That's the best. So good. It's the best. Yeah. Little four hatches on a groom. I feel like Bode Miller on most days, slashing, he had the greatest skier on the mountain. On lower, lower national. That's what I always say on Lower National, I'm the best skier on this mountain. It's nothing like cruising hayride, coming over the waterfall pitch It's my favorite trail. Two inches of snow on it. Just a couple other weather terms for people. Greenland block. Good for us. Typically. Typically. So any, explain what that is. So any, because people, have you ever heard the Greenland block blocking people? You knew more than I thought. I know More than you think. So any blocking of the flow that's upstream from us is gonna be good because it's gonna try and force any system that's coming to go underneath that. So you're slow down it Slow. Yeah. It slows the slow down. It blocks it and it tries to it. It just, it tries to force it. it's not gonna, usually the storm isn't gonna cut up the St. Lawrence Valley and rain on us because of the block and the high pressure. Yeah. so anytime you have a, an upstream block, it does, it has that slowdown effect. It keeps it more on the Atlantic side, which. Honestly, now it seems recently, like we talked about earlier, everything will keep going east and we end up it's good for the cities Or the big cities like Boston, the I 95 corridor. it seems like that happens a lot. Yes. block, a Greenland block is really good for them. it's good for them for like the, if you're like, it's good for East Coast, but it's really the I 95, the urban corridor there really needs that. But they don't like the snow. No. We want it. Yeah. I know I'll take my chances with something coming into us warmer and wetter. Yeah. Yeah. Then swinging a, like we always, I talk about it a lot in posts sometimes that I'll take my chances With the precipitation and run the risk of it being rain. Yeah. Then watching something go out to the south.'cause Mansfield's gonna, even if it rains on the front end, it could, we could do the, we could do the tide out, back up Slope Crush. So I lived in Lake Tahoe for two winters and that was pretty much every storm. they were just high moisture content. Oh yeah. That's high moisture content. Yeah. We got 800 inches. That's my first in, Squaw Valley. It's a bucket list for me. is the, to see one of those giant, like a hundred inch Tahoe storms. Yeah. you gotta do it. Yeah. But to your point, it was like, it'd be raining down in town. Yep. in Tahoe City, everybody's ah, it's no, it always shifts and there's just that high moisture content and it would just go off like crazy. Yeah. Yeah. You gotta go out there. you would you love that weather? The, a hundred mile an hour winds and eight feet of snow sounds like fun. And then the sun comes out Yes. Literally every time. Yeah. we don't get that here. Yeah, exactly. Might see the sun once a month. nice. All right. Do a little, yeah, let's do a rapid fire questions. All right. You, you kick it off, Mike. I'll kick it off. All right. You're in the hot seat. I think I already know the answer to this, but, nor'easter or UPS Slope event. Up slope. I knew it. obvious. Trust your gut at 2:00 AM or refresh model runs again. Refresh, I gotta see it. I have to see it. Yeah. Yeah. Wow. It's data, right? Yeah. Euro model or GFS Ah, it used to be the Euro model. I think 10 years ago that thing was undefeated. I think the, the Americans have caught up. Wow. I trust both of'em equally. All right. Front end thump or backside magic. We already asked that, but Yeah. We'll do the, we'll do the Mansfield magic November freak storm or April redemption storm. Good question. Oh, that is April. April. I take the April. I might say November. Just'cause you're so excited. Yeah. Yeah. I think there's two parts of it. Yeah. it, it does, but the redemption storm is good when it's been a while, and you get that storm in April and everyone's given up and there's nobody there. I feel like the, I feel like the crowd level plays into my answer there. Yeah. The November dump can just get a little outta hand. Yep, yep. Yeah. With those skinning people. Yeah. Get a little excited, radar loop length, short and sweet, or all night long. longest loop possible. All right. Snow water equivalent ratio or wind direction, snow, water equivalent. Most unpredictable winter weather month in Vermont. All of them. Good answer. Yeah. If you could control one variable temp wind or moisture, which would you pick? Oh, I thought that was a good one. Moisture. I You like moisture. You wanna see moisture? I'm getting that. I'm with Scott. One, it can't snow without if there's not moisture. And given mansfield's just the, yeah. the elevation where we are, the latitude northern, like we have a strong correlation to moisture. Yeah. Whereas the further south you go, it starts, if you're in the Mid-Atlantic, like New Jersey, the Catskills, their more cor, their snowfall is more correlated to temperature. Correct. Whereas ours is, it's usually already cold enough. Yeah. That so if we have an above, above average amount of precipitation, it's gonna be snow in the winter. So I'm all moisture all the time. Love it. I'm a hundred percent with you. Yeah. A lot of people, chances they get scared off. Yeah. When they see just that little bit of rain, I'm like, this is a good thing. Yeah. I'll take my chances.'cause its, it adds snow, water equivalent to the snow pack. It just, yeah. It's more durable. I'm used to it too, from the Tahoe days, like Sierra Cement, just get the wide skis out and it's just as fun. That's what, it's just as fun. It's gonna snow somewhere. Yep. What's harder? Forecasting the rain snow line or explaining it to people. explain, yeah, explaining, explaining things like that are difficult, the uncertainty around it, like I've got a pretty good idea in my mind of where something's going to end up, but trying to explain the uncertainty around that. I would say if you want to go even further the, trying to figure out and explain the northward extent of like sleet or freezing rain where there's warm air, that's tough, warm air aloft, that's. Yeah. And then playing like Next day. Next day coach. what happened? Why didn't it happen? Yes. Then you have to go explain. Yes. All those things that didn't materialize the way you thought, right? Yeah. If it's going sleet or freezing rain, just assume it's gonna go a little further north than expect. Yeah. True. It's always does. All right. Mansfield forecasting trust the models or trust your gut? I think they're a little bit of both.'cause I think my gut runs off of what I'm seeing. On the models is just what I've seen in the past happen when I, when you know, this wind direction, this type of moisture. you have a lot of historical knowledge and experience, Mansfield's snow stake measurement or what your skis tell you. I'm always gonna go measurement. Yeah. Preserve the observation science. I, and that's, we could go on for a long time about snow reporting with this'cause that's a big snow report topic. yeah, it's just measure,'cause some people go, I don't care what the actual measurement is. I want to know what it's, it feels Yes. Eight inches. And we get that a lot with the snow report. I use that line. skied like eight. Yeah. You will say that. Skied eight. but it's like a real thing too.'cause when you ski it, and there's a lot of people that, and it depends on the density of the snow. It depends on the trail sometimes, right? Absolutely. Some people, you'll do nose dive. I'd be it was amazing. And I go do something else. I'm God wasn't that good. Good percent. It's like a, it's a theoretical question that people,'cause they'll be like, I don't care what the number on this. The snow report was, if I skied it and I think it feels like eight, then it's eight. And sometimes, Andre and I are like, huh, there's only four, But it was a heavy four, so it skied super, And if that's how it made you feel, then that's great. That's it is. or we get 14 inches of fluff, but it's on top of. Boiler plate. Yep. And the whole way down, you're just jackhammering through bumps and people are like, that wasn't that you're Exactly. Oh, we got 14 inches of snow. He goes, but that was the worst rundown chin clip I've had all year. Exactly. People get hung up on the amounts. Yeah, I know. That was very well said. And I, that's why I like the snow water equivalent when Yeah. I think that's a key part of snow forecasting and just snow in general. Yeah. Is that an inch of water at the end of the day of snow is going to. Feel a certain way. Whether it's 30 inches of snow or eight inches of snow, you're gonna get that. it's an inch of. Water that's keeping you from the subsurface. Yeah. I actually think this is all what makes Mansfield such a cool place, right? Yeah. There's all these nuances. Yes. The weather's nuanced, the trails, the wood ski different than this and all that knowledge, there's something really cool about that. You're still learning. Knowing it. Yeah. Learning and you guys know, each day you go out and ski. You a different area could be the best run of the year. And then you go somewhere else, like you said, you go to a different trail and you're is wild. This is I don't know, like the wind. The wind came out of a weird direction. And so the drifts that are usually on the left side of star are now down in the corner and yeah, it's now the, this mountain, keeps you on your toes. Yes. And it changes. I always say this mountain changes as much as any mountain anywhere, right? We can go from. Powder to ice. To dirt, yes. Back to powder. All in two weeks. And that's, it happens. I think that's what I found in college when I first came here, is that, yeah, you get the, you could have a warmup and a rain and I used to have, I grew up skiing the Berkshires and Southern Vermont and it rains and it's done for two weeks. you're, yeah. You're out of it. You're just Exactly. Just not gonna, it's a no go. And here you're oh, it rained yesterday. But then the UPS slope came in, it snowed eight inches, and then it snowed three more. And for all of a sudden you're oh Back. Yeah. It's just back. You go from depression to euphoria. Yes. Yes. you're not stuck in that oh, it rains. So we're done for two, three weeks. Yeah. You're never out of the game for two weeks. No, it, no, not at all. And on that note, shout out to, to mountain ops, just with how they handle all those transitions. there's been so many times where it just, it looks dire. Oh. And if there's a window, they fire up the guns and they're, they got the groomers out. Extra groom. Yeah. It's like patch and spackle. So just wanna recognize the hard work they do to manage those transitions. The credible team. Yep. And I love forecasting for'em too. Yep. To advising them. All right. Awesome. we'll, that was a good round, that was a really good round. And, we'll just wrap up with all little stuff about Stowe and your time here. Yeah. you talked about going to UVM and getting your job up at the mountain. When was that? when did you really decide, hey, I want to live in Stowe? it's been a while, but I think, I got the job in marketing, was up here and I was doing the snow report from, I was driving from Burlington every day Wow. For multiple years. And so I be leaving my house like three or three in the morning, and the college kids in Burlington are still out and about. And, so many sketchy drives on 89, right at four in the morning. That's, they plowed, they haven't plowed since 11:00 PM and just it's a. Like this drive's getting old. Yes. and I think it was like around 2010 I moved to Stowe, lived, in an apartment above what was still at that time, the shed. wow. So that was fun. I felt like I That is legendary. A part of ski culture was living above, above the shed. Above the shed. Yeah. Oh, that must've been loud. Yeah, it wasn't that bad. It was, Smell the fryer later and stuff like that. Also, a lot of bonuses living there too. Yeah, no, it was right out looking out over the Picasso parking lot, but it felt like a ski, it felt like the right, to go that ski experience. Yeah. Go do the snow report and ski all day and come back to your place above the local bar. Grab a mountain nail. Yep. Forehead out. Yep. and then, yeah, been in stone since around 2010. Loving up lived here and then you'd still work at the mountains. Yep. So I still, I am actually a, I manage, rental and retail. Okay. Out there for right now, it's spruce Peak, yeah. It's like the rental shop that stay tuned. Yep. Over there. and that's my full-time year round gig. Got it. So you're ramping up. Yeah. Yep. All the gear in go time is all the gear in gear's getting in. Yep. It's coming in. Yeah. Be time to start firing up the tuning machines and get the. Get the emulsion fluid flowing. Awesome. all your time in Stowe. What is your hope for Stowe? and we'll say the town of sto, but we could Yeah. Town or mountain? Town or mountain, yeah. Or maybe both. what is your hope in the next five to 10 years for the town in the mountain? I think we're in a good place right now. I like the vibe at the mountain is, is high. the. The town, has been, vibrant. I'm not sure I really have a Just keep going on. just You're loving it. Just do it. Yeah. just keep doing sto we've got, community is fantastic. Everybody here has something that they can try and that we try and add to the community. I think, I mean like forecasting, or even something as simple as writing the snow report. It's just something that I can add to the local community. Absolutely. What you guys are doing with this podcast, you can add to the community and that's good point. I think there's a lot of that going on in Stowe and it just keeps evolving, but But everybody's got their own little corner that they can help improve the community a little bit. I think that's a cool outlook on it. what's your hope for Stowe and Yeah, just encouraging. what can you contribute to the community? Yeah. What can you give? Yeah. Because that is what everybody's has little skills and maybe something simple, but like we all go about our daily lives and do our, doesn't to be doom and gloom necessarily. Yeah, that's a good point. But what little things can we do to improve? Improve Little nugget. yep. Very cool's. What makes the community right? Everyone contributes a little part. All right, Scott, so we wrap up all of our episodes with one question. If STO did not exist, does not exist in the world, I'm dying to hear this. Where would you be living? It's gotta be weather related. It's, that's, it's gonna be, probably somewhere around the Wasatch. Yeah, that was gonna be my guess. I like the, it must be wild out there. The lake effect. They get that they get off of the Great Salt Lake. Plus just the snowfall plus the, some people will say probably the city there is May can detract from it because it's crowded. But I think it's cool that you have this. Major metro area. And like all the services and things that come along with that Next to places that get 500 inches, 600 of 700 inches. Yeah. Quite some weather anomaly for sure. I think I, I could geek out for quite while whole new set of skills, probably learning those mountains right. And the way the setup is. Yeah. I think, I look at those avalanche forecasters out there and that to me would be a dream job is just the, just spending every day in the mountains studying the snow and how it moves. That type of stuff. Awesome. thank you so much, Scott. Thanks Scott. I'm looking forward to a great winter. Yeah, we'll see you on the mountain. Yeah, you're welcome guys. Thanks. Appreciate it. Thanks, Scott. Hope you enjoyed that episode of the Octagon Podcast. Remember to like us on Instagram and subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. See you next time.